India Rice Output Faces Sharpest Drop

India’s rice production is expected to decline by around 10 million metric tonnes in 2026/27, marking its sharpest fall in nearly two decades, as below-normal rainfall threatens crop yields, according to industry estimates reported by Reuters.

Production could fall nearly 6.5% from last year’s record 154 million tonnes. The expected decline would be the largest since the 2009/10 season, when an El Niño-related drought affected output.

India has received 15% less rainfall than normal since the monsoon began on June 1, while rainfall deficits in some major rice-producing states have reached 42%. Summer-sown rice acreage was also around 4% lower year-on-year at 42.68 million hectares as of September 11.

Lower production expectations have already pushed domestic rice prices higher, with export prices reaching their highest level in more than a year. Higher local prices could make Indian rice less competitive in international markets, although prices in other major exporting countries such as Thailand and Vietnam are also rising.

Despite the weaker crop outlook, India’s large rice reserves could support continued exports. State reserves, including unmilled paddy, stood at a record 59.6 million tonnes as of September 1, substantially above the government’s October 1 target of 10.3 million tonnes.

The large inventory is therefore expected to provide a buffer against the production decline and could allow India to maintain exports without imposing fresh restrictions, according to market participants cited by Reuters.